Monday, December 12, 2011

Is it best to buy in USD or in your local currency?

Note: This question is for those whose primary currency is not USD but you can still answer anyway:





If you have some sizable amount of USD cash which you already had a long time ago when USD had a higher value, is it wise to spend it now and buy items in USD or is it better to just pay in your local currency (USD are cheaper now) because USD might be stronger again in the next few months/years?|||This is actually a very difficult question. If you knew which way the dollar would move in the midterm, you could make a lot of money investing in it or another currency that you expected to do better.





The foreign exchange people seem to think that the dollar is heading down, and that it is currently, technically overpriced by about 45%! This is not good news for us dollar holders.





Iraq has been very expensive and we are taking too little in tax. To pay for that shortfall, we print more money, and the value of the dollar, in adjusting for that, sort of picks up the tab. This is finance, not politics.





But just recently, the British pound fell sharply (nearly 10%) against the dollar due to financial problems in their economy, so it is a gamble which ever way you try.





I've often told friends that while many people might be watching a single stock, there are big BIG players watching currencies, so it is not worth playing with our inept predictions.





Depending on the outcome of the next US election, and the fiscal policies of the 'winner', it could have a positive effect on the value of the dollar. But if it looked like the same policies would continue, it could easily go down further.





As is often the case in such decisions, I am afraid that there is no 'good' advice on which way to go.|||Just like any transaction for profit, the rule is simple:





"Buy Low - Sell High!'





Since you would be, in effect, selling your USD at a low point of their value, you would be losing value.





Hang on to the USD until they become more valuable. US GOODS are cheaper now, NOT the Currency.|||I am from the Philippines and the US dollar has lost 20% against our currency, the peso. So if I have dollars now, i'll change them for pesos before the dollar reaches rock bottom.

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